Bitcoin (BTC) slipped below $64,000 on Tuesday as traders reduced risk exposure before the Federal Reserve's interest-rate decision, with spot Bitcoin ETF outflows and leveraged liquidations piling on the selling pressure through the session.
BTC opened Tuesday near $63,706 and extended its decline toward $63,327 — leaving it down roughly 2.5% on the day. The price later recovered to around $63,858, but never retook the upper $64,000 level. The narrative was risk-trimming dressed up as price action.
Breaking an ascending trendline
The four-hour chart tells the day's story cleanly: Bitcoin broke below an ascending trendline that had supported the recovery from its late-June low near $58,000. Buyers attempted to reclaim the trendline later in the session, but the rebound stalled below $64,000 — a textbook old-support-becomes-new-resistance reversal.
The four-hour Supertrend resistance sits at $65,198, and that indicator will continue to favour sellers until BTC can close above it and convert the broken trendline back into support. The Chaikin Money Flow reading at minus 0.04 shows capital flows turning slightly negative — not extreme distribution, but enough to keep the selling pressure exceeding the buy-side bid.
Daily signals turn neutral-to-bearish
On the daily frame, BTC is squeezed between its 20-day moving average at $64,449 (above) and its 50-day average near $63,343 (below). The daily RSI slipped to 48.13, a neutral reading but pointing down. Two liquidity clusters to watch for the next leg: $64,500 to the upside and $62,500 to the downside. Each break could define the next short-term move.
Why sentiment is leaning defensive
Two factors drove Tuesday's defensive positioning. First, US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $11.64 million in net outflows on July 27 — small in absolute terms, but sign-shifts from consistent inflows matter at the margin more than the dollars. Second, leveraged positions across perpetual venues were liquidated through the session, with the early-morning dip forcing the most aggressive longs underwater first.
The pullback is also feeding into a broader risk-off tape stretching from crypto to brokerages. Robinhood extended its July decline to test $89 support ahead of its own Q2 print on July 29, with crypto-linked equities broadly trending lower alongside BTC.
A geopolitical wildcard also sits in the macro stack: Brent crude fell 4.8% to $84.09 as mediators stepped up efforts to revive the US-Iran memorandum of understanding — a quiet de-escalation that, if confirmed, would shift the broader risk backdrop again. Read the full US-Iran MoU report here.
Liquidity clusters to watch in the next session
The market tends to gravitate to high-density order-book clusters in low-news hours — and right now, both $62,500 and $64,500 are loaded. Below $62,500, the next meaningful resting demand sits close to the late-June low at $58,000 itself. Above $64,500, the next resistance is the Supertrend flip at $65,198 and then the 20-day moving average at $64,449 — both of which act as combined resistance above the broken trendline.
For swing traders, the cleanest objective: a daily close back above the trendline (currently near $64,000) for a continuation-resumption long; a daily close below $62,500 for downside follow-through toward the late-June low. Sitting in the $62,500–$64,500 band is acceptable for longer-DCA stacks but unattractive for traders who rely on a directional range.
For the very near term, BTC's reaction to the Fed headline will set the tone. A patient, no-hike decision with a measured tone could trigger a rebound above $64,500; a hawkish tilt risks a clean break below $62,500 and a return to the late-June lows.
