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Spot flows lag the price recovery
Labelled entities tracked by Nansen sent a net 3,700 BTC to exchanges during the past week. Because deposits can precede sales, the analyst counts the increase among the factors limiting his confidence, although transfers do not always lead to immediate selling.
US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs also recorded around $236 million in withdrawals in the latest reading, reversing a period of stronger institutional activity during August when ETF demand supported Bitcoin's advance from below $65,000 to above $80,000. The outflow does not erase the earlier buying, which included a $1.92 billion weekly inflow run and $6.55 billion in short liquidations across two weeks, but Søndergaard says the market still needs consistent spot demand before the recovery qualifies as a lasting cycle turn.
"That combination suggests the recovery still lacks consistent spot-flow confirmation," he said, referring to ETF withdrawals, exchange deposits and weaker short-term momentum. The caution echoes other recent analysis placing downside support near $76,350 if sellers regain control.
Whales split between long and short
Large Bitcoin traders have not adopted one clear position during the recovery. Whales tracked across Nansen's monitored addresses remain slightly net long, while accounts trading large notional amounts on Hyperliquid hold heavy short exposure. Funding rates stay positive but moderate, meaning long perpetual-futures holders are paying shorts without the elevated levels associated with an overcrowded trade.
Declining open interest shows total derivatives exposure has contracted, while taker-flow data point to continued market selling. For Søndergaard, the combination creates conditions for a short-covering bounce because lower-timeframe momentum has entered oversold territory. A price increase could force bearish traders to close positions by purchasing Bitcoin, adding fuel to an advance even without fresh spot buying.
Such a move would not automatically confirm a breakout, he cautioned, because leverage-driven buying can fade once short positions have been closed. Long traders face a separate risk if Bitcoin loses $76,400, which the analyst identified as an important downside level whose break could pressure leveraged bullish positions.
The $80,000 test requires stronger demand
For the recovery to become durable, Bitcoin must first reclaim and hold the $77,400–$77,650 range, according to Søndergaard. A successful move through that area would bring the $80,000 level back into focus after several failed attempts to stay above it. Stronger spot volume and improving ETF flows would provide the confirmation the analyst is seeking.
Funding would also need to remain moderate as open interest expands gradually, a combination showing traders are adding exposure without creating an immediate leverage imbalance. "If that happens while funding stays moderate and open interest grows gradually, I would see the recovery as becoming more durable and expect broader participation across crypto," he said.
Strategy has taken the opposite approach, purchasing 4,603 BTC for $369.7 million between Aug. 24 and Aug. 30 at an average of $80,318 per coin, ending a pause of more than two months. The company's leadership has defended buying at higher prices, with CEO Phong Le describing the market as a "pretty heavy bull market" and saying Strategy intends to keep buying regardless of price. Macroeconomic conditions add another test, with the 10-year Treasury yield near 4.80% as rising oil prices and inflation concerns push bond yields higher, which can reduce demand for assets that generate no income.
