Bitwise Bitcoin Forecast: What Changed?
The Bitwise Bitcoin forecast now puts the cryptocurrency at approximately $1.6 million by 2036. Published on October 28, the asset manager’s 2027 Bitcoin Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions projects a 34.3% compound annual growth rate over the coming decade.
The revision follows its August 2025 outlook, which projected approximately $1.3 million by 2035 and annualised growth of 28.3%.
That comparison needs context. The rounded price target has increased by roughly 23%, but the endpoint has also moved forward one year. This is an updated rolling outlook, rather than a higher estimate for the same deadline.
Bitwise’s official research summary also anticipates lower average volatility alongside a slightly stronger relationship with US equities.
Forecast measure | Previous outlook | Updated outlook |
|---|---|---|
Target year | 2035 | 2036 |
Bitcoin price target | Approximately $1.3 million | Approximately $1.6 million |
Compound annual growth rate | 28.3% | 34.3% |
Average volatility | 32.9% | 27.8% |
Average correlation with US stocks | 0.39 | 0.43 |
These are modelling assumptions, not observed future results. Lower projected volatility also does not mean Bitcoin becomes a low-risk asset.
Why Bitwise Became More Optimistic
Chief investment officer Matt Hougan says the firm used the same valuation approach as last year, updating the underlying data.
The model estimates the future size of markets Bitcoin could serve, then assigns Bitcoin a share of each. Hougan’s explanation of the revised forecast says the projected store-of-value market increased from approximately $91 trillion to $110 trillion. The projected institutional investment market rose from approximately $216 trillion to $303 trillion.
Bitwise retained its previous assumptions about Bitcoin’s share of those markets. Larger estimated markets therefore produced a higher valuation.
This is the central argument: Bitcoin could become more valuable if demand for assets outside government-issued currencies expands and Bitcoin captures a meaningful portion of that demand.
Hougan also acknowledges the counterarguments. Much of the recent appetite for store-of-value assets has favoured gold, ETF purchases have slowed, and Bitcoin has remained vulnerable to steep declines.
Bitnxt’s earlier coverage of Bitcoin ETF flows reversing near September’s close offers relevant context. Institutional access can expand while actual buying remains uneven.
Source: Bitwise X Post
The Assumption Carrying Much of the Target
The report’s base case assigns Bitcoin a 25% share of a projected $109.8 trillion store-of-value market in 2036.
Multiplying those figures gives approximately $27.45 trillion in attributed value from that category alone. This makes the store-of-value assumption a major driver of the result.
Bitwise’s scenarios show how widely outcomes can vary:
Scenario | Modelled Bitcoin price in 2036 |
|---|---|
Bear case | $130,686 |
Base case | $1,599,766 |
Bull case | $3,667,911 |
These scenarios are illustrative. The bear case is not a guaranteed floor.
The framework uses a September 30, 2026 starting price of $83,557. Consequently, its published growth rate should not be described as a calculation from the roughly $81,000 price highlighted in Coinpedia’s headline.
For the separate near-term backdrop, Bitnxt’s October 28 market recap covers Bitcoin trading near $81,000 ahead of the Federal Reserve decision. That is a dated market snapshot, not a live quotation.
Institutional Demand Is an Expectation, Not Committed Capital
Bitwise expects institutional investors to allocate between 1% and 5% of their portfolios to Bitcoin over the next decade. Its release presents this as potentially generating trillions of dollars in demand.
Those allocations have not already been committed. Institutions can adopt gradually, rebalance, reduce exposure or decide against investing.
There is also a limitation to comparisons between potential demand and newly mined supply: existing holders can sell. New issuance is only one source of Bitcoin available to buyers.
Bitnxt’s analysis of Bitcoin’s strong Bull Score alongside cooling demand explores this broader distinction between a favourable investment narrative and evidence of sustained purchasing.
Bitnxt’s Take: Judge the Assumptions Before the Target
Our reading is that Bitwise’s report is most useful as a framework for asking what Bitcoin would need to become over the next decade.
A growing addressable market does not automatically translate into Bitcoin demand. Investors still have to choose Bitcoin over competing assets, retain their holdings through downturns and accept its technological and regulatory risks.
Bitwise itself identifies quantum computing, AI-driven mathematical advances and regulatory reversal among the major threats to its outlook. The firm also manages crypto investment products, including a Bitcoin ETF—a relevant commercial context when evaluating its research.
The evidence to watch is therefore practical: sustained allocations, durable demand through weak markets and a growing role in portfolios. None can be established by a price target alone.
For Bitnxt, the report provides a clear bullish thesis with measurable assumptions. Whether those assumptions survive the next decade matters far more than whether $1.6 million makes a compelling headline.
