The Bitcoin Bull Score has reached 90 out of 100, but the buying needed to extend the rally is weakening. CryptoQuant’s latest assessment describes a market that remains bullish while becoming more vulnerable to a pullback as demand cools and profitable holders cash out.
Bitcoin traded around $83,300 during Asian morning hours on September 30, following a recent eight-month high near $87,400. That is approximately 4.7% below the peak, calculated from those rounded prices. The quote is a dated market snapshot, rather than a live price.
What a Bitcoin Bull Score of 90 Actually Means
CryptoQuant uses the Bull Score to bring several on-chain and market signals into a single assessment. A high reading indicates that its framework sees broadly favorable conditions. The firm’s bull-market interpretation also follows Bitcoin’s move back above its 365-day moving average.
Its September 22 research placed that average near $80,500. Crossing back above it matters because the price has recovered beyond its average level over approximately a year, giving analysts a longer-term reference for the recovery.
Still, a score of 90 is not a 90% probability that Bitcoin will rise tomorrow. It does not specify a price target or tell readers how much downside might occur along the way.
The two observations can coexist: a market can retain a bullish longer-term structure while the latest advance loses momentum. Understanding that distinction is more useful than treating the score as a standalone buy signal.
CryptoQuant’s Bitcoin Bull Score stood at 90/100 in its September 29 assessment. Source: CryptoQuant.
The 170,000 BTC Demand Figure Needs Context
CryptoQuant’s September 29 research puts the contraction in apparent spot demand at roughly 170,000 BTC over the preceding 30 days.
Apparent demand is an estimate based on supply behavior. The methodology compares newly mined Bitcoin with changes in the inventory of coins inactive for at least a year. It is designed to infer demand; it is not a direct count of buy orders across every exchange.
The negative reading therefore should not be described as 170,000 BTC of confirmed exchange sales, or converted into an equivalent amount of cash leaving Bitcoin funds.
For readers assessing the rally, the practical question is whether this measure starts recovering while price holds up. A price recovery accompanied by improving demand would provide stronger confirmation than a bounce that leaves the demand estimate deteriorating.
CryptoQuant’s apparent spot demand measure showed a 30-day contraction of roughly 170,000 BTC. Source: CryptoQuant, September 29, 2026.
Futures Demand Growth Slows About 90%
The derivatives figures show a sharp slowdown in incremental activity. CryptoQuant’s speculative futures demand growth measure fell from around 164,000 BTC on September 14 to 16,000 BTC on September 29.
That works out to a decline of approximately 90.2% in the growth measure over 15 days. It does not establish that total futures positions, trading volume or market size fell 90%.
Growth was still positive at the later reading, but much smaller. That distinction changes the interpretation from a market disappearing to a source of additional demand losing strength.
Without fresh demand, rallies struggle to extend.
That was the assessment of Julio Moreno, CryptoQuant’s head of research, in the report.
A derivatives-led advance can become harder to sustain when incremental positioning slows. Whether that produces a decline or a period of sideways trading depends partly on the willingness of spot buyers to absorb available supply.
Profitable Traders Have More Reason to Sell
CryptoQuant reported that its tracked traders’ on-chain unrealized profit margin reached approximately 33%, the highest since December 2024.
That is a cohort-level indicator derived from on-chain data. Individual returns depend on when and where someone bought, and the measure should not be presented as the return earned by every recent investor.
The firm’s September 29 public update also flagged profit-taking at a 2026 high. Its research put realized profits on September 22 at approximately 25,700 BTC in Bitcoin-denominated terms.
The distinction between unrealized and realized profit matters. The first describes gains still embedded in holdings; the second records gains under the on-chain metric when coins move relative to their previous cost basis. Neither should be confused with a verified total of cash withdrawn from exchanges.
From a market perspective, rising profits create an incentive to sell. They cannot tell us exactly how many holders will act on that incentive, or when.
Why the $80,000 Area Is in Focus
CryptoQuant identifies the 365-day moving average near $80,000 as the first support reference if the pullback continues.
Moving averages change with each new observation, so the level is an approximate zone. It also represents an analytical reference, rather than a guaranteed floor.
A test of the area would be more informative when considered alongside demand and selling pressure. Holding the zone while buying improves would strengthen the case for consolidation. Repeated weakness around it, with demand still contracting, would give analysts more reason to question the recovery.
Bitnxt’s Take: Watch the Buyers Behind the Score
Our reading is that the next phase deserves closer attention to participation. The score captures strength already visible across a collection of indicators. Sustaining higher prices requires buyers willing to take the other side of profit-taking.
For Bitnxt, the most useful follow-up would be improving apparent demand alongside steadier spot buying and a market able to absorb selling without repeatedly losing ground. A higher score alone would leave that question unanswered.
There is room for a bullish market to pause. What matters now is whether the pause attracts fresh demand or exposes how dependent the advance has become on speculative activity.
For further updates on on-chain trends, ETF flows and Bitcoin’s market outlook, follow Bitnxt’s Bitcoin news coverage.
