Bitcoin has been projected to reach $150,000 by mid-2027 and climb toward $300,000 in 2029 under Bernstein's base-case forecast.
Bernstein's Base Case and Bullish Scenario
Bernstein analysts led by Gautam Chhugani said in an Aug. 26 client note that Bitcoin could recover to around $125,000 by the end of 2026 before setting a record near $150,000 in mid-2027. The Wall Street research firm expects the asset to maintain its historical four-year cycle under its base case. Using a model tied to Bitcoin's marginal production cost, the analysts placed the next cycle peak at approximately $300,000 in 2029.
Although the projection assumes Bitcoin follows its established market cycle, Bernstein presented a second path in which institutional demand and concerns about government debt accelerate the price increase. Under the more bullish scenario, BTC could reach $200,000 by mid-2027 and $500,000 in 2029. Bernstein also retained its longer-term forecast of $1 million by the end of 2033. These projections come as the market has already entered extreme greed territory for the first time since 2024.
Institutional Ownership Supports the Forecast
Institutional access through U.S.-listed spot exchange-traded funds forms one part of Bernstein's forecast. The firm said ETF participation and corporate treasury purchases may have helped limit Bitcoin's latest decline compared with the much deeper losses recorded in previous cycles. During earlier downturns, Bitcoin fell between 75% and 90% from its cycle highs. Its latest decline reached about 50% from the October 2025 peak before BTC rebounded 28% over 10 days.
Ownership data cited in the note showed that approximately 59% of Bitcoin's supply had not moved during the previous 12 months. Bernstein viewed the large inactive balance as evidence of a holder base willing to retain the asset through major price swings. The bullish indicators align with the Bitcoin bull score reaching 80, a level that historically supported extended rallies.
Currency Debasement Could Speed Up Bitcoin's Rally
Rising government debt creates a second part of Bernstein's bullish case. The analysts said the 40-year period of declining interest rates has ended while U.S. sovereign debt has reached $40 trillion, increasing the cost of servicing federal obligations. Rising yields create a self-reinforcing cycle of higher interest expenses, larger fiscal deficits, and increased borrowing needs, according to the analysts.
Bernstein said policymakers may respond to rising fiscal pressure through currency debasement instead of stricter spending measures. Such an outcome could direct more capital toward assets with limited supply, including Bitcoin and gold. Bitcoin's programmed supply is capped at 21 million coins. The firm said its scarcity, cross-border accessibility, and growing institutional ownership strengthen its position as a hard asset. This institutional access story was further strengthened by BlackRock cutting its IBIT swap minimum to $1 million, making Bitcoin-to-ETF conversions available to a broader group of investors.
Bernstein Cuts Strategy Target Despite Outperform Rating
Alongside its Bitcoin forecast, Bernstein maintained an Outperform rating on Strategy but lowered its MSTR price target from $450 to $350. The analysts attributed the reduction to their revised Bitcoin cycle model and faster equity dilution. Strategy remains the largest publicly disclosed corporate Bitcoin holder, with 840,447 BTC, or roughly 4% of the asset's maximum supply.
Bernstein estimated that the company's strengthened balance sheet provided about 3.9 years of cash coverage for annual interest costs and preferred-stock dividends. Strategy raised approximately $2 billion from common-stock sales during the week ended Aug. 23 but bought no Bitcoin. Its dollar reserve stood at about $5.1 billion, while its Bitcoin balance remained unchanged at 840,447 BTC, acquired for $63.36 billion at an average cost of $75,385 per coin.
