Bitcoin has entered the early stage of a possible bull market after a 24% rally lifted CryptoQuant's Bull Score from 30 to 80 within one week.
Bull Score Reaches 10-Month High
CryptoQuant reported that Bitcoin's Bull Score rose from 30 to 80 over the past week, reaching its highest level since October 2025 as spot and futures demand strengthened. Eight of the model's 10 indicators now show bullish conditions. The index combines several measures of market demand, investor profitability, network activity, and liquidity to assess whether Bitcoin is trading in a favorable or unfavorable environment.
A score of 80 places Bitcoin firmly inside the model's bullish range, compared with 30 before the rally began. According to the analytics firm, the rapid increase indicates that several parts of the market improved together rather than price rising on one isolated signal. Bitcoin climbed more than 24% from below $64,000 and briefly moved above $80,000 during the advance.
Why Bitcoin Needs a Weekly Close Above $83,000
CryptoQuant has not treated the move above $80,000 as final confirmation of a new bull cycle. Its model requires Bitcoin to record a weekly close above the 365-day moving average, which currently sits near $83,000. A weekly close above roughly $83,000 would place Bitcoin back above that level and confirm the firm's bull-market signal. Until then, the analytics provider views the current move as an early-stage recovery that still needs price confirmation.
LMAX Group market strategist Joel Kruger identified a similar resistance area. He pointed to Bitcoin's May 2026 high of $82,820 as the next major price level, putting the previous peak close to CryptoQuant's 365-day moving average. A clear break above that level would reinforce the view that a meaningful cycle low is now in place and shift attention towards the next major move through $100,000 and the 2025 record high, Kruger noted.
Spot and Futures Demand Rise Together
Supporting the Bull Score increase, CryptoQuant said spot and futures demand are growing at the same time for the first time since early October 2025. Spot demand matters because it involves purchases of Bitcoin itself, while futures activity can include leveraged positions that traders may close quickly. Growth across both markets suggests that the rally has drawn participation from cash buyers alongside derivatives traders.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have provided an identifiable source of cash-market demand. The funds recorded about $1.9 billion in net inflows during the week ending Aug. 21, their strongest weekly intake since October 2025 and their fifth consecutive positive session. Fresh U.S. demand continued after the weekly streak, with spot ETFs attracting $337.56 million on Aug. 24. BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust led with $208.9 million, followed by $104.6 million for Fidelity's Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund.
Whale Profits Raise Pullback Risk
Although its long-term indicators have improved, CryptoQuant warned that several short-term measures show the rally may have become overheated. Traders' unrealized profit margin rose to 20.5%, the highest reading since June 2025. The metric estimates the paper gains held by market participants and can indicate increased selling pressure when profits rise quickly. CryptoQuant compared the latest reading with early May, when the margin reached 19% as Bitcoin traded near $82,000, before BTC subsequently fell by about 30%.
Large short-term holders have already converted part of their paper gains into realized profits. Between Aug. 20 and Aug. 22, short-term holder whales booked about $1.2 billion while Bitcoin traded around $78,000 to $79,000. Selling activity peaked on Aug. 20, when the group realized a record $614 million in profits. Around 53,000 BTC moved onto trading platforms, the largest deposit total since June. CryptoQuant treats rising deposits as a potential source of sell-side supply because the assets become easier to trade once they reach an exchange.
