Wall Street isn't giving up on Wynn's Middle East megaproject. Brokerage Texas Capital Securities says it still anticipates that Wynn Al Marjan Island — the $5.1 billion casino resort rising in Ras Al Khaimah, UAE — will open within 2027, even after geopolitical turbulence forced the operator to walk back its original spring 2027 target.

The Analyst's Case

In a Monday note, analyst David Bain acknowledged that geopolitical events have likely stalled the stock momentum of Wynn Resorts — the property's 40% equity owner and operator — which would otherwise have been building toward the UAE resort's originally planned first-quarter 2027 debut.

But Bain drew a sharp line between share-price noise and fundamentals, arguing the events don't damage the project's long-term UAE financial forecasts. He went a step further: rather than degrading the project's valuation, he sees potential for greater earnings and valuation over the long run as a result of the disruption.

The context is the US-Iran conflict. Ras Al Khaimah sits on the southern shore of the Gulf directly opposite Iran, and Wynn Resorts said on its May earnings call that shipping and logistical challenges tied to the war would cause a modest delay to the opening timetable, with a revised date to follow.

Las Vegas: Softer Quarter, Same Leader

The upbeat UAE view came alongside a more cautious near-term read on Wynn's home market. Texas Capital cut its second-quarter estimates for Wynn's Las Vegas operations to below consensus, citing industry checks pointing to a relatively soft June and tough year-on-year comparisons — calling the company a victim of its own success after a strong prior run. Even so, Bain maintained that Wynn Las Vegas continues to outperform on key metrics and remains a market share leader on the Strip.

Bonus Read: The MGM Takeover Chess Game

The same note waded into U.S. casino M&A. With MGM Resorts trading about 3% below the $48.30-per-share cash takeover offer from Barry Diller's People Inc, Bain reads the market as betting a deal gets done at a higher price. Using the valuation implied by Fertitta Entertainment's roughly $17.6 billion agreed acquisition of Caesars Entertainment — a comparison he considers conservative — he estimates MGM would be worth $54 per share, before even counting MGM's Osaka integrated resort in Japan, which he believes could generate around $800 million in owned EBITDAM after its planned 2030 opening.

Notably, the threads intertwine: Fertitta Entertainment is controlled by Tilman Fertitta, who also happens to be Wynn Resorts' largest individual shareholder — a reminder of how concentrated the ownership map of the global casino industry has become as its next generation of resorts, from Ras Al Khaimah to Osaka, comes online.

Source: Reporting via GGRAsia, based on a Texas Capital Securities research note by analyst David Bain. This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.