.jpg)
Prediction market betting could soon find its way into Spain's regulated gambling landscape, according to discussions at a recent Gaming in Spain webinar that brought together legal experts and industry analysts to unpack the latest regulatory shifts affecting the country's iGaming sector.
Who Weighed In on Spain's Changing Regulatory Landscape
The panel featured Xavi Munoz Bellvehí, Managing Partner at ECIJA Barcelona; Camille Gonzálvez, TMT & iGaming Lawyer at ECIJA; and Josh Hodgson, COO of H2 Gambling Capital — three voices well-positioned to break down what's changing, and what's likely still to come, in Spanish gambling regulation.
Proposed Amendments Target Tax Evasion and Illegal Operators
Much of the discussion centered on a series of proposed changes to Spain's Remote Gambling Act. Among the key proposals: tighter player identification requirements aimed at closing loopholes used for income tax evasion, the creation of a registry of approved B2B software suppliers designed to strengthen the market's defenses against illegal gambling activity, and additional restrictions on gambling advertising.
You might also like: Evolution Settles With UKGC for £4.75m Following 18-Month Black Market Probe
A Late-Stage Proposal on Cross-Operator Deposit Limits Shakes Things Up
The webinar also had to pivot to address a last-minute government proposal that wasn't originally part of the planned agenda — a cross-operator deposit limit that would apply across the Spanish market as a whole. A trial period for the measure is set to run from September 25 through March 25, 2027, giving regulators a window to assess its real-world impact before any permanent rollout.
According to analysis from H2 Gambling Capital, the proposed limit alone could shrink player spending by an estimated €300 million, simply by capping how much players are able to deposit across multiple operators. The firm also warned that market channelisation — the share of gambling activity happening through licensed, regulated channels — could dip to 74% in 2027 under current projections, before eventually stabilizing around 71% from 2028 onward.
Room for Prediction Markets Under Existing Rules
Beyond deposit limits, the panel also tackled the increasingly relevant topic of prediction markets, referencing recent developments around platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi. Despite the Spanish gaming regulator's generally cautious stance toward these platforms, the speakers suggested that Spain's current regulatory framework may already leave room for prediction betting to operate legally.
As one press summary from the event put it, the rapid rise in popularity of prediction betting could work in favor of Spanish-licensed operators looking to diversify. However, the panel cautioned against overstating the competitive threat prediction markets pose to traditional sports betting operators — noting that the way transaction volumes are calculated in prediction markets tends to inflate perceptions of their actual market impact relative to conventional sports betting.
