The next chapter of US crypto adoption may depend on how comfortable people feel making their first purchase. New research from the National Cryptocurrency Association estimates that more than 33 million Americans who do not currently own cryptocurrency are likely to buy it in 2026.
Announced on October 6, the findings describe a sizeable potential audience. They also reveal why interest has not yet turned into ownership: unfamiliarity, concerns about scams and uncertainty over where to begin.
For exchanges, wallets and payment providers, that makes this more than an optimistic adoption headline. It is a test of whether the industry can make its products understandable enough for people who have followed crypto from a distance.
US crypto adoption: what the 33 million figure actually means
The headline is an estimate based on respondents’ stated likelihood of buying. It is not a count of new exchange customers, funded wallets or verified transactions.
The survey also concerns people who did not hold crypto when questioned. Some may have owned it previously, so describing the entire group as first-time buyers would overstate the finding.
Timing matters, too. Respondents were surveyed before the October announcement. Their answers concern buying during 2026; the research does not establish that 33 million people are still waiting to purchase between now and December.
Nor does it forecast investment size. A small exploratory purchase and a substantial allocation could both satisfy someone’s intention to buy, with very different consequences for market demand.
What would bring people into the market?
Among non-holders likely to buy in 2026, the research identifies several motivations:
Motivation | Share of likely buyers |
Diversifying investments | 41% |
Shopping for goods and services | 26% |
Getting paid faster | 24% |
Accessing money around the clock | 24% |
These figures describe the likely-buyer subgroup and should not be added together as mutually exclusive categories.
Investment remains the strongest stated motivation, but practical uses also feature. That creates different product demands: someone interested in portfolio diversification needs a different experience from a freelancer looking to receive payments.
The audience could look different from today’s holders
The report compares current holders with non-holders likely to buy:
Profile | Current holders | Likely 2026 buyers |
Median age | 38 | 42 |
Women | 34% | 43% |
Household income below $75,000 | 23% | 42% |
These are survey-group comparisons, not a confirmed demographic shift in actual purchases. Nevertheless, they challenge the assumption that the next wave must primarily consist of young, affluent men.
Understanding is strongly associated with buying interest
The report finds a substantial gap between respondents who consider themselves knowledgeable about purchasing crypto and those who say they know nothing about it: 41% versus 11% say they are likely to buy.
That association does not prove education causes purchases. People already interested in buying may also spend more time learning. It does, however, identify a practical gap that product developers and educators can address.
“Knowledge is the single biggest lever we have,” NCA President Stuart Alderoty said in the announcement.
Useful information must explain more than how to press a purchase button. New users also need to understand custody, transaction errors, fees and what protections a service actually provides.
How the research was conducted
The Harris Poll conducted the online survey for NCA among 2,014 US non-cryptocurrency holders, from June 24 to July 1, 2026.
Responses were weighted across demographic characteristics. The methodology states an overall Bayesian credible interval of ±2.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level, with wider intervals for subgroups. That statistical precision does not measure whether respondents will follow through on their intentions.
NCA’s separate May holder study estimated that approximately 67 million American adults already owned crypto. Adding potential buyers to that estimate would not produce a verified year-end ownership total: purchases, sales and changing intentions would all affect the outcome.
Independent surveys also produce different adoption estimates. Pew Research Center reported in June that 19% of US adults had ever invested in, traded or used cryptocurrency, based on a January survey of 8,512 adults. Its question, fieldwork dates and methodology differ from NCA’s research, so the figures should not be treated as interchangeable.
Bitnxt view: the opportunity is in the first experience
Bitnxt’s editorial view: The report’s strongest message is that potential customers need a clear reason to use crypto and confidence in the process.
For providers, the meaningful measures will be funded accounts, repeat usage and customers who understand what they bought. Those will show whether curiosity is becoming lasting adoption.
The 33 million estimate establishes a potential audience. Whether that audience enters—and stays—will depend on the experience waiting for them.
For the payments side of that experience, read Bitnxt’s guide to choosing a crypto payment gateway.
