Russia's regulated crypto trading market could process between 3.5 trillion and 4 trillion rubles during its first year, according to an Aug. 29 forecast from SberCIB Investment Research, equivalent to approximately $46.43 billion.
20% of Current Volume Expected to Migrate
Sberbank Deputy Chairman Anatoly Popov said Russian cryptocurrency transactions currently total roughly 50 billion rubles daily, equaling about 18 trillion rubles over one year. SberCIB expects approximately 20% of this activity to move onto regulated exchanges during the first year. The bank forecasts organized trading of between 4.75 trillion and 5.25 trillion rubles by 2028, followed by about 7.5 trillion rubles in 2029.
Bitcoin, Ether and USDT Lead Proposed Asset List
The Bank of Russia has proposed Bitcoin, Ether and Tether's USDT for organized trading, selecting them using criteria related to market capitalization, trading volume and overseas price history. Other cryptocurrencies could remain unavailable to ordinary investors through regulated venues unless they satisfy the central bank's standards. Qualified investors are expected to receive broader access after completing required testing.
Retail Investors Face Testing and Limits
Non-qualified investors must pass a knowledge test before buying eligible cryptocurrencies. They can purchase no more than 300,000 rubles, approximately $3,800, annually through each intermediary. Qualified investors must also complete testing but can access any cryptocurrency without the same monetary ceiling. Cryptocurrency remains prohibited as payment for ordinary goods and services inside Russia.
Licensing Deadlines Shape Market's First Year
Existing crypto exchange providers can continue operating during a transition period but must complete registration by July 1, 2027. Sberbank separately plans to launch crypto trading, custody and digital-depository infrastructure by Dec. 1, 2026. The first measurable results will depend on how many intermediaries enter the regulated system and how much activity moves away from unregistered services.
