Bitcoin has bounced off its recent lows, but on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant is urging caution: the recovery, it says, is best understood as a rally within a bear market rather than the start of a new uptrend. In its latest Weekly Crypto Report, the firm argues that improving demand, favorable July seasonality, and stretched valuations all point to further short-term upside — while its headline gauge of market health remains firmly in bearish territory. Here is a research-backed breakdown of the call and the data behind it.
The Bounce So Far
After sliding to a bear-market low of around $57,700 last week, bitcoin rebounded roughly 10–11% to reclaim the $60,000 level, briefly reaching about $64,000 before easing back toward the low $60,000s. As of July 10, 2026, BTC was trading near $63,000. CryptoQuant treats $60,000 as a key support area — holding above it keeps the recovery intact, even after some of the bounce was given back midweek.
The Central Caution: A Bull Score Stuck at 20
The anchor of CryptoQuant’s argument is its Bull Score Index, an aggregate measure that combines on-chain, market, and valuation indicators on a 0-to-100 scale. Readings at or below 40 signal bearish conditions, while scores above 60 have historically aligned with sustainable bull markets. Right now the index sits at just 20 — deep in bearish territory and far from the 60 threshold the firm says is needed to confirm a durable rally.
As head of research Julio Moreno framed it, a true bull-market regime would require the score to climb back above 60; until then, the rebound is best read as a bear-market recovery, not a trend reversal.
The Bullish Case: July Seasonality
CryptoQuant’s constructive near-term view rests heavily on seasonality. Over the past decade, July has been one of bitcoin’s more reliably positive months, closing higher in most years. Notably, the effect has been pronounced even in down-cycles: in the bear-market years of 2018 and 2022, bitcoin rallied roughly 20% and 17% respectively in July even as the broader trend stayed weak. With bitcoin entering July 2026 fresh off a bear-market low, the firm argues this seasonal pattern skews near-term risk toward further upside.
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Demand Is Recovering — Toward Neutral
A second supportive signal is a rebound in demand. CryptoQuant’s 30-day total bitcoin demand metric — which combines spot market activity and perpetual futures positioning — had collapsed to about -650,000 BTC in early June, its sharpest contraction since 2022, as bitcoin fell toward $58,000. That reading has since recovered back toward neutral. Speculative futures demand has turned slightly positive, while spot-market selling has slowed to its weakest pace since mid-May. The firm notes that a move back into clearly positive territory would confirm the demand engine is re-igniting — an important “if,” not yet a “when.”
U.S. buyers also show signs of stabilizing. The Coinbase Premium Index, a proxy for U.S. spot demand, had sunk below zero in early June as bitcoin bottomed near $57,000 — one of its weakest readings of the year — before recovering from those deeply negative levels.
Valuation: Undervalued Enough to Recover
CryptoQuant also flags that bitcoin’s recent undervaluation leaves room for recovery. Traders’ unrealized profit margin fell below -24% in early June, well beyond the firm’s -12% undervaluation threshold. Historically, such extreme readings have often coincided with local market bottoms as short-term holders capitulate — and the metric has since begun recovering alongside the price rebound from around $57,700.
The Data at a Glance
Metric | Reading |
Recent low | ~$57,700 (bear-market low, last week) |
Rebound | ~10–11% off the low; peaked near $64,000 |
Price (Jul 10, 2026) | ~$63,000; $60,000 treated as key support |
Bull Score Index | 20 (bearish ≤ 40; bullish ≥ 60 needed for sustainable rally) |
July seasonality | +20% (2018) and +17% (2022) in prior bear-market Julys |
30-day demand | Recovered toward neutral from ~ -650,000 BTC in early June |
Unrealized profit margin | Fell below -24% (vs. -12% undervaluation threshold); now recovering |
Conclusion | Bear-market recovery, not a trend reversal |
The Historical Echo of 2022
CryptoQuant’s framing carries an implicit warning drawn from history. In earlier analysis, the firm compared the current price action to the 2022 bear-market rally, when a similar bounce failed to sustain itself and was followed by renewed downside. It has also pointed to bitcoin’s 365-day moving average as a critical dividing line between bull and bear conditions — a level that, in past cycles, bitcoin repeatedly failed to reclaim before selling pressure resumed. The lesson: a sharp bounce and improving internals are necessary but not sufficient to declare a bear market over.
What Would Change the Call
CryptoQuant’s conditions for upgrading its view are specific and measurable. The Bull Score Index would need to climb above 60; 30-day demand would need to move firmly back into positive territory; and bitcoin would need to reclaim and hold its key long-term averages. Until those boxes are ticked, the firm reads the market as off its lows with improving internals but a bearish regime still intact.
Why It Matters
For traders and investors, the distinction between a bear-market recovery and a genuine trend reversal is not academic — it shapes how much conviction to place behind a bounce. CryptoQuant’s message is deliberately two-sided: the near-term setup, thanks to seasonality and recovering demand, tilts toward further gains, but the broader regime remains bearish until the data confirms otherwise. It is a reminder that in crypto, a strong month can coexist with a weak trend, and that the two should not be confused.
Sources and Further Reading
The Block – “CryptoQuant says bitcoin rebound remains a bear-market recovery, not a trend reversal” (July 9, 2026)
Bitcoin Magazine – “Bitcoin Slips to $62,000, Paring Rebound as CryptoQuant Sees Room Higher”
FXStreet – “Bitcoin eyes extension of July rally after reclaiming $60K, but bear market risks remain — CryptoQuant”
CryptoQuant Weekly Crypto Report (July 2026) and commentary from Head of Research Julio Moreno
Note: Prices and on-chain readings reflect reporting available as of July 10, 2026, and move continuously. This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice; markets carry significant risk.
