Bitcoin's nearly 11-month correction may be approaching its end, with eight of twelve capitulation signals in VanEck's proprietary indicator now flashing, suggesting the market is entering or nearing an accumulation phase according to the asset manager's research team.
The findings, published on August 18 by VanEck researchers including Senior Investment Analyst Patrick Bush and Head of Digital Assets Research Matthew Sigel, indicate that Bitcoin has experienced what appears to be price capitulation after declining approximately 48% from its all-time high of around $126,300 set in October 2025.
What the Capitulation Signals Show
VanEck's Bitcoin Capitulation Check tracks twelve indicators across on-chain metrics, market structure, and investor behavior. Eight of those signals are currently in their capitulation zone, and all twelve have dropped into capitulation territory at some point over the past three months. Bitcoin is trading around $64,700 and has remained range-bound between roughly $58,000 and $66,500 since the beginning of June.
The three previous Bitcoin bear market phases have taken an average of 12.7 months from peak to max drawdown. Bitcoin is now roughly in its 11th month from its early October peak, putting a potential transition to accumulation in the September through November window based on historical cycles. For more on Bitcoin's current market position, see our analysis of liquidation risks at key price levels.
Long-Term Holders Are Selling
The amount of Bitcoin held for more than a year fell by roughly 356,000 BTC over the past 30 days to 11.84 million BTC, bringing long-term holders' share of circulating supply below 60% for the first time in months. This significant reduction in long-term holder supply is itself one of the capitulation signals, as it indicates that even the most committed investors are distributing.
While this might sound bearish, long-term holder selling has historically coincided with market bottoms rather than tops. When the strongest hands begin distributing, it often means the selling pressure is exhausting itself, creating conditions for a new accumulation phase as prices stabilize and new buyers absorb the supply.
ETF Inflows Return
The capitulation signals coincide with renewed demand for U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs. The funds recorded just under $300 million in net inflows on Monday, their strongest single day since May 5. This institutional buying activity provides a counterbalance to long-term holder selling and suggests that larger investors may be positioning for a recovery.
The ETF inflow data is particularly notable because it represents the strongest institutional demand in months. When ETF inflows accelerate during a period of long-term holder capitulation, it suggests that institutional buyers are absorbing the supply being released by long-term sellers, a dynamic that has historically preceded market recoveries. For more on Bitcoin ETF trends, read our coverage of weekly ETF inflows.
Why This Cycle May Be Different
VanEck warned against treating these capitulation signals as surefire short-term buy indicators. The researchers noted that similar periods when eight to twelve indicators were firing produced average 90-day and 180-day returns below the baseline, meaning that capitulation signals do not guarantee immediate upside.
However, VanEck expects a shallower trough this cycle compared to previous bear markets. The firm pointed to three structural differences: the existence of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded products providing consistent institutional access, a larger institutional holder base reducing panic selling, and the absence of widespread crypto lender and exchange failures like FTX, Celsius, and Terra Luna that amplified previous downturns.
What Investors Should Watch
The key question is whether the capitulation signals will be confirmed by a sustained price recovery or whether Bitcoin will spend additional time in its current range. The $58,000 to $66,500 trading band has held since June, and a break above the upper boundary could confirm the accumulation thesis. Conversely, a break below $58,000 would invalidate some of the bullish signals.
Investors should also monitor ETF flow data, as continued institutional buying alongside long-term holder selling would strengthen the case for a bottom. The September through November window identified by VanEck's historical analysis will be a critical period for determining whether Bitcoin is truly transitioning from correction to accumulation.
For the latest Bitcoin market analysis, visit Bitnxt.
